Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $568,896$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{639,343.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 164.3)}}\) (asimptote \(639,343.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,616$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,077.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 186.5)}}\) (asimptote \(42,077.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,226$ on 2020-10-25

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,946$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{706,639.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 242.0)}}\) (asimptote \(706,639.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,397$ on 2020-10-25

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,440$ on 2020-10-25

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $451,707$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{526,636.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 183.9)}}\) (asimptote \(526,636.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,623$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,615.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 155.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,615.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,735$ on 2020-10-25

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $112,932$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,151.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.4)}}\) (asimptote \(100,151.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,174$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 147.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,258.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,480$ on 2020-10-25

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,255$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,377.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 165.6)}}\) (asimptote \(87,377.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $312$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{318.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 149.2)}}\) (asimptote \(318.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,167$ on 2020-10-25

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $121,635$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,322.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 150.3)}}\) (asimptote \(121,322.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $746$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{655.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(655.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,118$ on 2020-10-25

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,750$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,203.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,203.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,134$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,173.5}{1 + 10^{-0.878 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,173.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,000$ on 2020-10-25

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $344,875$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,107.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.0)}}\) (asimptote \(337,107.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,296$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,331.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,331.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,249$ on 2020-10-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Israel recovered 80%
Uzbekistan recovered 76%
United Arab Emirates recovered 67%
Maldives recovered 66%
Tajikistan recovered 57%
India recovered 36%
Bangladesh recovered 33%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,151$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,978.8}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(85,978.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,739$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,701.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,701.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $410$ on 2020-10-25

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,307$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,402.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.9)}}\) (asimptote \(69,402.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $549$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{568.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(568.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,249$ on 2020-10-25

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $125,123$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.9)}}\) (asimptote \(137,958.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $477$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 64.4)}}\) (asimptote \(401.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,715$ on 2020-10-25

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,505$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,991.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 172.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,991.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 102.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $944$ on 2020-10-25